The 2019 market outlook for Lee County was presented by Jeff Tumbarello, Broker of Steelbridge Realty at the South West Florida Real Estate Investment Association general meeting in January 2019. About the presentation:
Click here for the slides presented at the meeting 2019 Market Outlook for Lee County
2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: What happened in 2018?December 2018 statistically was a very bad month, 2018 statistically was a great year in spite of that. Let’s talk about the December 2018.
2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Year over year metrics 2017 versus 2018
2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Year over year metricsDecember 2017 versus December 2018
The drop in sales volume and sales counts is troubling. From media reports (we need to be skeptical of anything reported that has not been verified) this was a National “thing”. 2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales by Year BuiltThere is a seesaw going on in the market between resales and new construction. Right now new construction is offering a quality product at a slightly higher price. From our experience, the consumer is recognizing the value and will to pay that premium. This Chart shows December 2018 versus December 2018.Notice how the reduction in sales counts was across the board of all the years built, this indicates a market issue not an asset class issue. 2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales Count PatternsAlmost every December shows a higher sales count in December versus November. That did not happen in December of 2018. 2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Bubbles of sales activity by priceThe bubbles of sales activity by price showed the market is essentially the same year over year with the difference in price. This is essentially inflation. Below, is the chart for December 2017 versus December 2018. The difference in the bubbles of activity by price in December 2017 versus December 2018 is apparent. It is also across the board. 2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Metrics by the CityThis is the entire year versus the entire year.
Here is December 2017 versus December 2018.
2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Pricing2019 Market Outlook for Lee County average pricing since 2009. 2019 Market Outlook for Lee County average pricing since 2015. The trendline shows growth more in line with inflation than an external growth pattern. 2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Sales counts by property typeSales Counts by Property Type
2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Pricing by property type
2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Cash sales metrics
2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Distressed sale metrics
2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Waterfront/Gulf Access metrics
2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Supply and demand overviewAs of 1/16/2019 @2:31 PM we have 6.11 months Inventory for Lee County Residential Assets listed in the MLS. 2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Inventory by City
2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Inventory by Zip Code
In real estate, any market with less than 6 months is considered to be a “seller’s market”. When the inventory is over 6 months it is considered to be a “buyers market”. 2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Distressed market updateThe negative price pressure from the last cycle was driven by distressed sales. This was the aftermath of a mania. We prepare a report each month about this, here is a link to the December 2018 Lee County Florida foreclosure report. A word of caution about listening to Real Estate Agents who speak on their production.
–7,088 Agents had at least a closing in Lee County for 2018. –4,932 Agents had at least 2 closings in Lee County for 2018. –1,143 Agents had at least 10 closings in Lee County for 2018. –345 Agents had at least 20 closings in Lee County for 2018. Trends to Watch
Is almost all of the new construction trading outside of MLS or do we lack truly lack inventory?
2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Cape Coral Single family Building permits2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Outlook for the retiree markets2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: Possible overleverage points (These are national Stats here)This is for commercial and industrial debt as reported by the Federal Reserve bank. Notice the growth since the last cycle. This chart shows the growth of residential debt, notice at the time of this chart, it has not surpassed the levels of the last cycle. I not saying it will not correct in the next correction but this is illuminating as to potential levels and intensity of correction.
2019 Market Outlook for Lee County: In conclusion
Our SWFL REIA General Meeting is held in Fort Myers where we provide education on hot topics in investing and an opportunity to enjoy the camaraderie of your fellow investors. You’ll get a chance to ask for advice from successful real estate professionals and even make a few deals on your latest projects. To become a member, anyone can register as an individual, a couple, or a corporation. Being a member opens the doors for endless networking opportunities, advice from members with decades of experience, new ideas from entrepreneurs, camaraderie with those just beginning, and deals and contracts done in the meeting room. For those interested in Cape Coral rental property investment and/or Fort Myers rental property investment, SWFL REIA will be able to provide a network to help launch a successful investment career. The SWFL REIA is known and respected as a source of current, actionable and useful information about the housing market in the area that we meet. We meet twice a month. Click here for information about the monthly luncheon. Click here for information about our nighttime general meeting. One of the premier sources for real estate investing networking and education is the SWFL REIA. In the real estate world, the SWFL REIA is different in that they do not do information product sales. Their meetings are focusing on the best ways of investing in real estate by collaborating with other property investors who are sharing their experiences. We look forward to meeting you at a meeting soon! Get our meeting notices and market data emailed to you.
Subject: 2019 market outlook for Lee County
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